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Saturday, September 1, 2012

RODRIGO DIAZ DE VIVAR updated 2

SEÑAL
machado ventura fue a la conferencia de los no alineados en teheran -cuando el protocolo sugiere que raul debio reciprocar la visita del presidente irani a cuba en enero- por:
  • 1.que raul castro decidio compartimentar responsabilidades con machado ventura no solo en el plano nacional sino en el internacional
  • 2.que raul castro esta muy cansado de su viaje a china, vietnam y rusia y le pidio a su segundo al mando que fuera por el
  • 3.que una situacion nacional mas importante que la internacional requirio que raul se quede en la isla
PODER COMPARTIDO
iran es un aliado que quita mas de lo que da. raul fue a china y a rusia a pedir. pero iran, a pesar de ser una nacion petrolera, no le suministra petroleo a cuba, es venezuela. cuba no tiene con que comprarle petroleo a nadie y chavez se lo da a cambio de proteccion despues del golpe de estado del 2002, y el cuidado de su salud. incluso iran crea drenaje politico por su rivalidad con estados unidos. que la coferencia en iran la atienda el segundo de cuba tiene sentido.
CANSANCIO DE RAUL
el presidente cubano es un octogenario que se cansa con un viaje intercontinental. pero se entiende que en la agenda de un estadista se preveen todas estas situaciones con anterioridad y los viajes son planeados. entonces desde que se preparo el periplo a asia y rusia se planeo tambien el de iran por lo tanto la version 2 viene a ser desbaratada por completo por la version 1 que sugiere el compartimiento de poder.
TRAGEDIA NACIONAL
que exista una situacion interna que impida a un estadista salir del terriotiro nacional a un compromiso al exterior tiene que ser una desgracia domestica tan grande que implique incluso la posible perdida del poder pues una vez fuera del pais el estadista puede quedar afuera porque un nuevo gobierno le niegue la posibilidad de entrar. en este caso solo la muerte de fidel castro daria ese escenario. ninguna otra situacion pondria en peligro el poder de raul.
RECREACION DEL MIO CID
por lo tanto, hay 2 versiones en realidad, la quasi-oficial y la extra-oficial. y eso, en realidad, es lo que siempre tiene un pais: lo que dice el gobierno y lo que dice la gente. que no siempre coinciden. lo vemos en estados unidos con el asesinato de kennedy, los platillo voladores, la tasa de desempleo, el motivo de las guerras y la promesa de cambio. en cuba es igual. por lo tanto el ocultarle algo al pueblo o a la opinion publica no es una novedad sino una trivialidad de todo gobierno. alla los ingenuos que pidan transparencia. que oculten la muerte del lider cubano no es el problema, el problema es la cantidad de tiempo que la van a manterner oculta. la unica explicacion esta en la leyenda del cid campeador, al que dicen que los españoles, ya muerto el cid, lo amarraron a su silla de cabalgar con armadura, casco y lanza para presentarlo asi a los moros, en un intento por ganar una batalla mas, su ultima, desde luego. si asi fuera, la unica contienda que encara el gobierno de cuba para que la presuncion de un fidel vivo la defina es el voto en venezuela. si en estos momentos chavez esta nivelado -si no algo atras- en las encuestas, la noticia del fallecimiento de fidel castro le crearia la debacle electoral. no digamos por motivos emocionales ni ideologicos sino por la supervivencia misma, ya que aunque cuba necesita del petroleo venezolano para funcionar, chavez urge de un gobierno cubano que lo proteja para poder mandar... o vivir. y eso no esta muy claro sin un fidel vivo.©varela

SIGN 
machado ventura went at the conference of the non-aligned in tehran -when the protocol suggests that raul should be reciprocal to the visit paid by the iranian president to cuba in january- due to:
  • 1.raul castro decided partitioning responsibilities with machado ventura not only at the national level but also in the international's
  • 2.raul castro is very tired from his trip to china, vietnam and russia and he asked to his second in command to go by
  • 3.a national situation more important than the international's required that raul stays on the island
SHARED POWER
iran is an ally that takes more than it gives. raul went to china and russia to ask. but iran, despite an oil nation, not supplies oil to cuba, but venezuela. 'cause cuba doesn't have how to buy oil to anyone and chavez is providing oil to the island in exchange for cuba keeps him in power after the coup d ' état of 2002, and taking care of him health. even iran creates political drain by his rivalry with united states. that the second man in cuba attends the conference in iran, makes sense.

RAUL TIREDNESS
the cuban president is an octogenarian who tires with an intercontinental trip. but it's understood that on the agenda of a statesman is foreseen all these situations in advance and planned trips. then a plan that prepare the journey to asia and russia also include iran, therefore version 2 comes to be thwarted completely by version the 1, which suggests the power compartment for the whatever reason.

NATIONAL TRAGEDY
that there's a domestic situation that prevents to the premier of a country leaving the national territory to a outside's compromise must be a domestic disgrace so great that involves even the possible loss of power because once outside, the statesman may stay out of his country because a new government could denied the possibility to enter. in this case only the death of fidel castro would give such scenario. any other situation would not endanger the power of raul.
EL MIO CID'S RECREATION
therefore, there're really only 2 versions, the quasi-official and the extra-oficial. and that, in fact, is what always has a country: what the government says and what people say. that both don't always match. we see it in u.s.a. with the assassination of kennedy, the flying saucer, the unemployment rate, the reason for the wars and the promise of change. in cuba it's same thing. therefore to hide something to the people or the public opinion isn't a novelty but a triviality of any government. not mention the naive asking for transparency. to hide the death of cuban leader isn't the problem, the problem is the amount of time that is going to keep hidden. the only explanation of this are in the legend of the cid, who says that the spaniards because died the cid, tied him to his horse's ride-chair with armor, helmet and spear to be submitted to the moors in an attempt to win another battle, his last, of course. if so, the only battle that the cuban government is facing, that a presumption of a live fidel could defined, is the choice in venezuela. while chavez is even -if not a little bit behind- in the polls, the news of the death of fidel castro at the moment would create the electoral debacle. not to mention for emotional reasons or ideologic's but for the very survival, since although cuba is needed of the venezuelan oil to work, chavez urges of a cuban government that protects him to be able to command... or to live. and that isn't very clear without a living fidel.
©varela